MUIRFIELD WILL PRODUCE A GREAT OPEN CHAMPION - IT ALWAYS DOES

FROM THE DAILY TELEGRAPH WEBSITE
By COLIN MONTGOMERIE
The greats win at Muirfield, or so the theory goes. But my suspicion is that the benign weather will make this an open Open.

That is not a bad thing. It will be great golf on a great links in a great spectacle. Yes, Muirfield has a habit of favouring the legends. But to my mind, it has a more notable habit of producing exciting championships.

Ernie Els won that four-hole play-off, Sir Nick Faldo defied the Americans to win twice at the East Lothian links, Lee Trevino chipped in on the 17th to deny poor old Tony Jacklin ... all these classic finishes were testament to a classic course. It is the stand-   out layout on the Open rota.

A quick scan down the list of Open winners at Muirfield will alert one to the fact that, as well as Arnold Palmer, there is another rather famous name missing from this parade of golfing superstars. How aptly Tiger Woods would fit on the roll of honour alongside the likes of Nicklaus, Player and Watson.

I cannot see it, however. Woods is simply not driving the ball straight enough. There is a body of opinion that says he will replicate his game plan from Hoylake and he is certainly capable of showing the discipline and control to pull that off. 
But the Tiger of 2006 was a different proposition in the majors. He is now 21-over for his past 12 weekend rounds in the majors.

Is he pushing too hard for No 15? The doubt nags and is enough to put me off his chances this week; which is staggering really, considering the fact he has won four times already this year. That is where Woods is at the moment.

He will be desperate to win a major in 2013 and, after this, only the US PGA at Rochester is left. if he draws another blank then his pursuit of Jack Nicklaus’s record major haul of 18 will begin to seem unlikely.
 What is definite is that the winner will be one of the players who spends most time on the cut stuff. If Rory McIlroy were showing the same form off the tee as at the end of last year, I would really fancy his challenge. But he is still bedding in with his Nike clubs and, although I am sure it will turn around for him soon, Muirfield is no place to be trying to find your accuracy. 
A lot has been said about McIlroy in the build-up to this event because he is a fantastic talent and all of golf wants to see him do well. But we must remember how young he is. Even the young Tiger had his struggles. 
That is golf for you. McIlroy must stay patient and continue to work hard. At the very least it would be great to see him up there in the fight at the weekend. 
Muirfield is a driver’s course in the sense that position on the fairway is paramount. But it is also a second-shot course because finding those wonderful greens, the best of any links course, is just as vital. 
The putting will be as crucial as always, too. As you can tell, it is a complete test, which examines not only every aspect of the golf game but also of the golf mind. 
I was proud to shoot a course-record 64 in the second round in 2002. It was a simple case of keeping the mistakes to an absolute minimum. That is what Muirfield requires. Clinical ball-striking and execution. It sounds easy, right?
My 84 in the third round shows how quickly it can unravel at Muirfield. It was Armageddon on that Saturday. It is a shame when the conditions have such an influence on the result and if anyone does not believe that squall had an effect then, they need only look to Woods’ 81 as evidence. It remains the only time that he has failed to break 80 in his 17 years as a pro. 
I have had quite a few of those rounds in my time. But that is links golf and there is no point in moaning about it. Only the player can limit the damage of his inevitable bad breaks. 
Remember Ernie playing that great recovery shot from the bunker on the 13th? Those are the shots of champions. So who will it be? Well, if my theory is right and that the great weather brings so many players into the frame, I could name 20 and not have the winner among them. 
I have a sneaking fancy for Henrik Stenson, who showed up well at last week’s Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open and who, like Matt Kuchar, has been very consistent and has served his time, having won the Players and World Golf Championship. 
Brandt Snedeker is another American who appeals to me. He is 32, like Adam Scott and Justin Rose, and having won the FedEx Cup last year could be primed to step up. Snedeker is a fantastic putter who seems to enjoy the challenge of seaside golf. 
Having won the Masters in April, Scott will not suffer any hangover from last year’s disappointment at Lytham, and Muirfield suits the Australian’s all-round qualities. The same applies to Rose. Victory for him would be a wonderful way to rubber-stamp Britain’s second wonderful summer of sport in succession. 
I do not normally go for first-time major winners to go back to back. The history books will confirm how difficult it is to bounce straight back from a life-changing victory. But Justin is the sort of individual who could do it. He is an intelligent lad who has learned to control his emotions. 
He appeared brilliantly composed down those last few holes at Merion. His body language screamed of a professional who was finally ready to cope with the intense pressures of that situation. If you look at his career, you see that Rose tends to hold his form well and he can most certainly contend this week. 
Imagine seeing him coming up the 18th on a victory walk with the home crowd in rapture. Maybe he could even deny Andy Murray the BBC Sports Personality of the Year prize. That is an intoxicating image, but if I could choose one golfer to win, it would be Lee Westwood. 
Over the past two years we have seen professionals in their forties prevail at the Open and glory for Lee would be just as emotional as it was for Darren Clarke and Ernie. We all know how well Lee can strike the ball and his chipping has been transformed since he moved to Florida. 
If his putter would just oblige then we could have the marvellous storyline. But Muirfield will produce one, regardless. It always does.